Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels, 2024 © Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels, 2024 © Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock

Armenia has announced its intention to become a member of the European Union, however close relations with Moscow, particularly in the economic and energy spheres, complicate the possibility of Yerevan taking the European path

22/01/2025 -  Onnik James Krikorian

The Armenian government has announced it plans to seek membership of the European Union. The move comes following a nationwide effort by extra-parliamentary political forces believed close to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to collect signatures calling for a referendum on the matter. Though it only managed 60,000 signatures, a tiny fraction of the electorate, parliament is nonetheless obligated to discuss the move.

Pashinyan has previously been coy about his intentions, only saying that Armenia is ready to “be as close to the EU as the EU deems possible”, perhaps aware that Brussels does not prioritise membership anytime soon. Indeed, Pashinyan has also said that any referendum could come only after discussions with the EU. Though Armenia is diversifying its reliance on Moscow for security, doing so in the economic and energy spheres will not prove so simple.

According to media reports, last year 42% of foreign trade occurred with Russia compared to just 7.3% with the EU. Armenia is also solely reliant on Russia for its gas and nuclear fuel. Landlocked and blockaded by Azerbaijan and Turkey, Yerevan lacks sufficient routes to benefit from the EU market and is dependent on Georgia and Iran. Russia has made it clear that EU membership would mean the end of its involvement as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEAU).

Some analysts are quick to point out that economic growth in Armenia is largely driven by the re-export of goods from Russia to foreign markets and vice-versa in contravention of international sanctions. Prior to the war in Ukraine, the trade turnover between Yerevan and Moscow stood at $2.5 billion. It was expected to reach $12.5 billion in 2024.

Nonetheless, the Armenian government has announced the latest development as the “start of a process of accession” to the EU. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk had instead called it the beginning of its departure from the EEAU. Gas prices, currently sold to Armenia at below market prices, would increase as would the cost of other imports such as wheat. “Ordinary people will lose income, employment, and pay more for necessary items”, warned Overchuk.

Undaunted, Gagik Melkonyan, an MP for Pashinyan’s Civil Contract, says he believes Russia needs Armenia more than the other way round. “They always scare us. We will cut off the gas or we will close the road. Living like this is not living”, Melkonyan said. "We must choose a path that will never be closed”.

On 17 January, Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone and reportedly discussed “further deepening integration and cooperation” and the “significant practical benefits from joint work within the Eurasian Economic Union, including for the Armenian economy”, a Kremlin statement read. Pashinyan’s office said that it discussed Armenia’s presidency of the EAEU in 2024 and "upcoming issues”. The call was apparently initiated by Yerevan.

The EU’s Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, has responded by saying that all applications are considered carefully. Cos also said she plans to visit Armenia in the first half of this year. Pashinyan has stated that he hopes to discuss a “roadmap" for accession though the opposition claims such hopes are unrealistic.

Gagik Tsarukyan, one of the main oligarchs under the previous administrations of former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, has also voiced similar concerns. "This means lost jobs, bankrupt businesses, inability to pay children’s tuition fees, problems with paying off mortgages, paying for medical treatment and heating homes, and inability to go on vacation in the summer”, Tsarukyan opined.

The presence of the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) along its border with Azerbaijan also remains a sensitive issue. The current two-year term of the formal mission, following the temporary deployment of the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) in 2022, expires next month. In addition to Russian and Iranian concerns about the EU’s foothold in the region, Azerbaijan has recently demanded that it be withdrawn if a peace agreement is signed.

That appears unlikely at present, although last month Pashinyan did suggest to Baku that EUMA can be withdrawn from that part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border demarcated last year. What it does signal, however, is that closer integration between Armenia with the EU carries with it risks as well, especially in the economic and security spheres. That will now likely depend on any rapprochement between Moscow and the new Trump administration in the U.S.

Just prior to former President Joe Biden leaving office, Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan and now former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a historic Strategic Partnership Charter in Washington D.C. However, consensus remains that it was rushed through before Trump took office. Nonetheless, it does mark an institutionalised framework on future cooperation and it also referenced civilian nuclear cooperation, a key issue for any energy diversification.