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Armenia has entered the pre-election year with all to play for. Yet, despite constantly declining ratings, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan could benefit from a new inadvertent supporter – the European Union
The European Union has confirmed that it will extend its Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) civilian monitoring mission on Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan for another two years. Though not unexpected, the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA), which started patrolling on 20 February 2023, has been controversial from the start with Azerbaijan now demanding it be withdrawn if an agreement to normalise relations with Armenia is signed.
Further details on the extension remain unknown, though Radio Free Europe’s Rikard Jozwiak reports that EUMA's mandate remains unchanged. If that is the case, it will patrol the entire length of the border with Azerbaijan on the Armenian side. In November, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had initially suggested that it could be withdrawn from parts of the border that have been officially demarcated. That is currently just 12.7 kilometres.
It also remains unclear whether EUMA’s extension will affect the peace process, as Baku had warned that it could do just that and possibly delay the fledgling border delimitation and demarcation process. In January, however, both sides announced that this would instead continue. With Azerbaijan still insistent that no agreement will be signed until Armenia changes a controversial preamble to the country’s constitution, few were expecting a final settlement anyway.
Amending the constitution has long been an objective for Pashinyan, even before the 2020 Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, initially delayed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Pashinyan has since declared that he wants a total overhaul of the document and early last year ordered that a draft be completed by the end of 2026. That has now been brought forward to earlier the same year, possibly coinciding with the parliamentary vote.
Pashinyan’s future also remains dependent on the outcome of that vote to be held no later than mid-2026. In a survey conducted in late January, only 11.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for his Civil Contract if elections were held that weekend. Second was controversial video blogger and former policeman, Vardan Ghukasyan, followed by former president Robert Kocharyan. Their ratings stood at 6.8 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.
Many more Armenians remain indifferent. Highlighting a high degree of apathy or disillusionment in society, 13.3 percent of respondents said they were against any of the options, while 27.2 percent said they would not vote at all. 15.4 percent said they found the question difficult to answer, while 10.2 percent refused to answer. That leaves everything to play for this year.
Indeed, in its first annual report, Armenia’s new Foreign Intelligence Service warned that it is likely external forces will attempt to destabilise the country in what is now a pre-election year, possibly exploiting Armenia’s economic dependence on Russia to do so. Ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Yerevan’s trade with Moscow has surged, hitting 12 billion dollars by the end of last year.
Despite the political impasse in Georgia, where protesters continue to take to the streets following the government's suspension of talks with the EU until 2028, Pashinyan says he plans to go ahead with a referendum to join the political and economic bloc, though no date has been given. Parliament is expected to discuss a bill outlining the path forward in February. Moscow, however, has warned that would mean Yerevan’s departure from the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), from which Armenia is significantly benefiting financially.
Nonetheless, the initiative could help Pashinyan retain power in 2026. The latest opinion poll suggests there are a large number of potentially receptive voters. In the survey, 51 percent of respondents said they believed Armenia would become an EU member within the next 10 years. Though Brussels has not indicated whether it supports further expansion, this could nonetheless bolster Pashinyan’s electoral chances in cooperation with those extra-parliamentary parties that proposed it.
The traditional or parliamentary opposition, however, maintains that Armenia is unlikely ever to become a member, likely meaning there will be heated political discussion in the months ahead. Even so, there is still the possibility the region will remain in its current geopolitical limbo with newly appointed President Donald Trump. The new administration’s policy on Ukraine and Russia could also have significant influence on domestic affairs in the South Caucasus.