Greece looks to the US for security and investments

Relations between Greece and the US – historically strong, but not always rosy – are strengthening at an economic and strategic level, as testified by the renewal of a mutual defense pact, with eyes on the threatening role of Erdogan's Turkey

On the road to the Thessaloniki airport, in the Greek region of Macedonia, in a once vigorous part of the city that gradually withered into a semi-abandoned industrial area as a result of the economic crisis that had stricken Greece since 2008, one can see promising traces of life again. Driving past what used to be the thriving corn factory of Biamyl, now an urban ghost, brand new buildings catch your eye: sites that emerged during the lockdown, silently yet confidently.

Throughout the past months, large American companies have invested millions of dollars in Northern Greece, creating hundreds of jobs and rejuvenating a neglected area of Pylaia that is now slowly being transformed into a Balkan Silicon Valley. Some of these American giants are Pfizer, Cisco, and Deloitte, providing permanent contracts with salaries quite higher than the average in Northern Greece.

American investments – many hope – could help reverse the massive brain drain in the wider region and support the Greek vision of Thessaloniki emerging as ‘a new Istanbul’: a promising business hub and key diplomatic player for Southeastern Europe and beyond.

The US' support towards Greece is a result of a reinvigorated strategic partnership between the two countries, starting with defence and expanding to key areas, such as law enforcement, counter-terrorism, energy, economy, trade, culture, climate and people-to-people contacts. Greece and the United States have engaged into a new era of strategic dialogue within the renewal of the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA), signed on Thursday 14 October, in Washington, by head of the State Department Anthony Blinken and his Greek counterpart, Nikos Dendias.

What is the MDCA?

The MDCA is a mechanism that has been in place since 1990, allowing U.S. forces to train and operate within Greek territory. The renewal of this strategic cooperation further strengthens and deepens an existing partnership by adding new sites of interest.

Despite the recent positive developments between Greece and the US, it was not always all champagne and frosting. Bilateral relations between the two countries have had ups and downs over the last decades: heated public debates over American bases on Greek territory and Greece’s dependence on the US for matters of security had repeatedly led to the emergence of waves of anti-Americanism among Greek people, sabotaging, also, parallel efforts to deepen Hellenic-American friendship by strengthening cultural and historic ties, usually with the support of the Greek diaspora. In fact, the shift in defence relations was set under Syriza, led by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras. Today, initiatives that started under Syriza rule are being further expanded by the centre-right and openly pro-American New Democracy Party, led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

What are the implications of a renewed MDCA?

The United States already has several military bases in Greece; the amendment could allow the bilateral defence agreement to remain in force indefinitely.

Firstly, by providing a five-year framework for the presence of the US Armed Forces in Greece, yet aspiring to be indefinite, the MDCA is now brought into conformance with the NATO standard. This extends the MDCA’s validity and viability; in other words, it makes it consistent with other bilateral defence cooperation agreements between NATO Allies, but also, sustainable enough to pursue its wider, long-term objectives for security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond.

Secondly, the MDCA foresees the possibility for American armed forces to further expand in sites of interest, as in Alexandroupolis, Litochoro, Stefanovikeio, Larissa, and of course in Souda Bay, Crete, which has traditionally been a site of high geopolitical importance within the MDCA. The four sites that the US will continue to build out as part of the MDCA are sites which had been, in fact, identified by Syriza. This time, however, the amendment sees the dynamics of a ‘new Souda’ in the city of Alexandroupolis due to its key geographic position in broader Thrace and beyond: potentially an alternative route to the Straits of the Bosphorus towards the Black Sea, Alexandroupolis becomes even more important in the pursuit of US and consequently, NATO, strategic goals.

US strategic plans for the wider region

The most likely scenario is that the infrastructure around the city of Alexandroupolis will be used as a main stationing point of US forces, from which they will be able to carry out operational activities in Eastern Europe. Another potential project, that could be supported by NATO funding, is the extension of the fuel pipeline of the Hellenic Armed Forces (which currently runs from Elefsina to Kavala) all over to Alexandroupolis, so that US forces can refuel, and from there, connect it with Bulgaria.

The ambitious plans foreseen within the MDCA should be received as the United States’ way of breaking its silence and re-expressing its interest in the region. Furthermore, this move signifies a reinvestment in NATO after a controversial and stressful period during which the United States had given the impression of disengaging from Euro-Atlantic relationships. As NATO struggled to cope with a multitude of challenges worldwide, the US, too, under the Trump administration, faced serious crises in its relations with NATO allies. The dramatic developments in Afghanistan have been a heavy blow, further affecting the cohesion of an already fragile alliance. The statements made by Secretary Blinken and the rest of the U.S. government team in the context of the MDCA signing convey a clear message of the US being still committed to ‘fixing NATO’. Apparently, the way of doing so passes through Athens.

The renewed MDCA comes almost one month after Greece established a new defence pact with France that foresees the two countries coming to each other's aid in the event of an external threat. It was in the first week of October that the Hellenic Parliament ratified a mutual defence pact with France, signifying a turning point, as this is the first time that two NATO members committed to supporting each other against a possible attack originating inside the alliance.

Both Greek and American high officials have stressed that the U.S.-Greece agreement and the France-Greece agreement are complementary. This move is a continuation of Greece’s investments in its defence capabilities, as Greece has also recently signed agreements with the United Arab Emirates.

Stakeholders involved in both the Washington-Athens, but also the Paris-Athens defence pacts firmly state that these developments have nothing to do with Ankara. Everything shows, however, that Greece is shielding itself from external threats, counting on the help of friends whose relations with Turkey have been deteriorating under Erdoğan's administration.

By spending a greater share of GDP on defense than any NATO member – except for the United States – and taking on larger duties of collective defense, Greece is envisioning itself as a key factor of stability in the region. One thing is for certain: we are entering a new era of geopolitical dynamics in the region, where strong partnerships will define who will prosper and who will have to change tactics in order to fit in.

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