The President of the Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev © Belish/Shutterstock
Despite there being ample evidence that President Ilham Aliyev would have won in a snap presidential election on February 7, throughout the day, journalists and independent observers reported the same old election violations and fraud tactics that were in place
The presidential election held on February 7 in Azerbaijan was incumbent President Ilham Aliyev's one opportunity not to resort to the usual election violations and fraud to secure a victory. Perhaps, even an opportunity for the country’s six million eligible voters to experience free and fair elections for once. Instead, countless violations were reported and documented, including carousel voting , ballot stuffing , and aggressive behavior toward independent observers and journalists. The vote on February 7 took place in an environment where “fundamental freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly are constrained,” according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) Election Observation Mission report published on January 23, 2024. Scores of so-called observers who spoke to journalists could not even name the leader of the ruling party, which they said they were observing the election day on behalf.
Not a new era after all
In January 2024, while speaking to a group of hand-picked journalists representing the pro-government media, President Ilham Aliyev spoke of holding the snap elections in a “new era.” This was one of the justifications the president used in explaining why he decided to call for the snap election in the first place when asked about the question of an early election. For the first time in the country’s history, the elections were taking place across the country, including in the formerly occupied territories Azerbaijan regained following the 44-day war in 2020 and the September 19 military operation in 2023. As such, the President said, the first elections to take place on these territories had to be presidential. He took his whole family to vote in Khankendi (Stepanakert in Armenian) to prove his point.
Originally, the vote was scheduled to take place in April 2025, preceded by a parliamentary election in February 2025 and a municipal election in December 2024.
There were seven presidential candidates, including the incumbent—all six openly expressed support for President Aliyev. The president did not participate in televised public campaign debates with other candidates but had a representative speak on his behalf. Unlike his rivals, he never expressed support for them.
Only two opposition parties - Musavat and Popular Front - boycotted the election. At the same time, the remaining 23, including the ruling New Azerbaijan (YA) Party, expressed solidarity and support with the president in a statement issued in October 2023.
As researcher Hamida Giyasbayli noted in their analysis of the environment ahead of the election, the hopes that the Azerbaijani government would resort to reforms in the aftermath of the second Karabakh war were dismissed, instead raising questions over “the direction of internal political developments.”
Since the 44-day war in 2020, the internal situation has only worsened. Starting with offline and online targeting of peace activists who were against the 2020 Karabakh war, to restrictive new legal requirements for media , to persecution of online critics and prosecution of journalists and political activists , to the use of intrusive surveillance technology against civil society members, to name a few. And it only deteriorated from there on with more arrests and crackdowns against opponents of the ruling Baku. Last year, ahead of the election, authorities arrested prominent economist and professor Gubad Ibadoglu. Over the summer, police violently cracked down on village residents who protested against the environmental damage caused as a result of gold mining in the village. Then, scores of labor activists faced arrests and intimidation . The worst was yet to come when a series of arrests target ed the independent news platform Abzas and its core team, followed by the news of yet another arrest, this time targeting opposition politician Tofig Yagublu and others .
As such, at the time of the presidential election, the list of politically motivated arrests kept growing and will likely continue to grow given the outcomes of the February 7 election. At the time of writing this article, the Central Election Commission (CEC) reported that the incumbent was leading with 92.1 percent of votes.
Opposition Musavat party called to cancel the election, citing “unfree and unfair environment.”
Business as usual
In an interview with OBCTranseuropa, journalist Ulviyya Ali, who covered the February 7 election, said she faced pressure from election commission representatives inside the polling stations. Similarly, she observed how scores of independent observers faced similar pressure. “As a journalist, I was warned several times and told where to stand and what to film,” said Ali.
Another independent journalist Lida Abbasli told Meydan TV, she was prevented from filming at a polling station and was kicked out. Similar stories were told by other journalists covering the election. Media law expert Alasgar Mammadli, told Meydan TV, such treatment was unlawful . Journalists faced pressure despite the head of the CEC, Mazahir Panahov announcing earlier on the day of the vote that journalists “should not hesitate from filming any problems.”
Ahead of the vote, at least three independent observers told OBCTranseuropa there were break-in attempts into their Telegram accounts, while Meydan TV reported how one university in Baku - the Baku State - was using WhatsApp for election propaganda. Screenshots of the group seen by Meydan TV contained instructions about the kind of information on election to be shared on students’ personal social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram. The university refuted reports it was engaging its students in election propaganda.
“You ask me why I am here? I know why I am here,” told an 80-year-old voter to a reporter from Azerbaijan Service for Radio Liberty. Later in the interview, the woman told the reporter she was voting because her children would lose their jobs if they did not vote. “Don’t tell me fairy tales,” said the woman when the journalist asked about her expectations of the new president. “Yes, right, they will appoint my son the president. Just go. I will speak no more,” she continued, walking after leaving the polling station.
But none of these stories, nor the abundance of election fraud evidence seem to have bothered a group of international observer s who were shamelesly praising the election. Like the Oracle Advisory Group, represented by George Birnbaum. The group was conducting exit polls on the day of snap election. Birnbaum said the results were a “victory for democracy.” He is known for being the man behind the Soros bogeyman campaign “which ended up unleashing a global wave of anti-Semitic attacks on the billionaire investor” according to Buzzfeed investigations and played a role in election of Orban.
The violations also did not seem to bother, a member of the Italian delegation, Salvatore Caiata, who said in an interview with mouthpiece media, Azerbaijani people, unlike Italians, were very active on the day of the vote. He got the activism part right, but for all the wrong reasons - it is no easy task to engage carousel voting, ballot stuffing, stalling and preventing independent observers from their duties, and finally casting their own ballots if they remember where their polling station is at the end of a hard and active work day. Perhaps this lack of oversight was due to Mr. Salvatore Caiata, being a member of an interparliamentary Azerbaijan-Italiy friendship group within the Fratelli d'Italia (FDI) party. It is likely that the party’s Azerbaijani counterparts, forgot to mention how in all of Azerbaijan’s history of elections - whether local, general, or presidential, the country’s track record has been marred by violations and election fraud, having failed to meet the basic standards of free, fair, democratic, and transparent elections. The FDI would have known this had they paid closer attention during their trip to Azerbaijan to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the late Haydar Aliyev last year.
So why was it, for reasons described until now, the president resorted to so much control? Likely because in the absence of any experience of holding free and fair elections, the president was afraid, and wanted to avoid a surprise outcome. And avoid he did. This is going to be President Ilham Aliyev’s fifth term in office and likely not the last if his health allows in 2031 and the president turns 69.
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