Azerbaijan, official Baku goes after its well-known economist

Gubad Ibadoglu, a well-known economist who has long been disliked by the Azeri government for his political aspirations, was arrested in Baku in recent days. His work focuses on “petro-capitalism”, analysing how oil and gas revenues have fuelled corruption and authoritarianism in post- Soviet states

On July 24, Azerbaijan’s renowned economist and academic Gubad Ibadoglu was unlawfully detained on charges of production, acquisition, or sale of counterfeit money by an organised group. It was not just a move of vengeance on behalf of decision-making bodies of official Baku. Ibadoglu’s arrest, and the subsequent bogus charges as well as the nearly four-month pretrial detention, speak to just how little has changed in the country under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev, and how bleak the future looks for the country and its people. Ibadoglu may have been just another name and a voice to be silenced in the eyes of autocratic leadership, but his arrest speaks to the continuing determination to destroy what is left of critics. If convicted, Ibadoglu is facing anywhere from 8 to 12 years behind bars.

Gubad Ibadoglu is a household name for anyone who has looked into the economic structure of post-Soviet states, as his name has appeared on countless reports, reviews, and opinion pieces on lack of economic transparency, financial accountability, and dysfunctional economic models implemented by the authorities of extractive industry in the region. In his life’s work, he has focused on good governance and “petro-capitalism”, analysing how oil and gas revenues have fuelled corruption and authoritarianism in post- Soviet states. The – counterfeit – charges levelled against him show just how uncomfortable the authorities have been with Ibadoglu’s work and research.

Video footage showed Ibadoglu telling journalists that his arrest was an order by Ilham Aliyev as he was being detained by the police.

In his recent lengthy article published in the Resources Policy, Ibadoglu argues that, based on the empirical findings, “the oil-hinders-democracy hypothesis is valid for the oil-rich nations of the post-Soviet space”. The paper focused on several resource-rich countries, including Azerbaijan.

Fabricated FETO connection

Likely in order to further tarnish Ibadoglu’s reputation and aggravate the charges levelled against him, the authorities also accused him of potential ties to FETO – a terrorist organisation which the Turkish state blames for orchestrating the failed military coup in 2016. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan claimed that out of five people recently detained with alleged ties to FETO, one man, named Anar Aliyev, knew Ibadoglu. Aliyev allegedly confessed to Ibadoglu giving him cash in US dollars, but Ibadoglu denies any such allegations, adding he does not know such a man.

News of five FETO suspects detained in an operation in Azerbaijan appeared online on July 23.

According to Anar Mammadli, founder of election monitoring platform in Azerbaijan, Ibadoglu’s political aspirations are the underlying reason for his arrest. In a lengthy post on Meta, Mammadli explained that Ibadoglu’s consistent work to create a new opposition political party and him openly challenging president Ilham Aliyev on a number of issues is what led to the academic’s arrest. “Gubad Ibadoglu's writings and speeches are consistent. We have witnessed many times that government officials, including Aliyev, reacted to his ideas. This is not the only reason. The main reason is the regime's intolerance to building a new political organisation. And now they consider arresting him a political opportunity”, wrote Mammadli.

Opposition to new political movements is not new in Azerbaijan. For decades Baku has cracked down on political movements ranging from youth initiatives to political parties. But the culmination of this crackdown started in September 2022, when the national parliament began discussions over a new, fairly restrictive law on political parties. The bill was eventually approved and signed into law in January 2023. Since then, scores of political parties have ceased to exist in Azerbaijan. So Ibadoglu’s political struggle, especially from abroad, was a threat at a time when Baku was busy cleaning up the domestic scene.

A fund to send Azerbaijani students abroad

For some time now, Ibadoglu has been quietly at work, creating an alternative scholarship programme that was finally launched in June out of the UK, called Azerbaijan Youth Education Foundation. The programme is also led by politician Jamil Hasanli and defected diplomat Arif Mammadov. Both have been in the crosshairs of the regime over the years. Hasanli’s daughter was also blackmailed with sex tapes in 2021.

In a post on Meta, Ibadoglu shared plans for the foundation which was to be funded based on donations as well as money confiscated from Azerbaijani elites, exposed for corruption and money laundering. Speaking to Abzas Media, Ibadoglu’s daughter Jale Bayramova explained that they were trying to transfer, through legal ways, the laundered cash by Azerbaijani officials, now sitting in frozen accounts abroad, to the fund, and use these funds to sponsor Azerbaijani students wanting to study abroad.

Azerbaijan has long suffered from a brain drain as a result of lack of quality education or lack of employment opportunities.

In July, Ibadoglu, who was normally based in the UK, returned to Azerbaijan to tend to his ill mother. At the time, he was already facing a smear campaign over the newly created foundation, with so-called experts accusing him of being a grant eater and serving the interests of the West.

The authorities in Baku claim that police identified 40,000USD in Ibadoglu’s Baku residence and are investigating the origin of the sum. Through his lawyer Zibeyde Sadigova, Ibadoglu has denied any knowledge of the money found in the apartment.

Ironically, none of international corruption schemes exposed in recent journalistic investigations naming Azerbaijani elites, including the ruling family, were brought to account, investigated, or pressed charges with.

When it comes to Azerbaijani civil society however, investigations are quick and allegations are wide ranging. From drug possession, to hooliganism, to police disobedience – the toolbox is diverse. Not to mention the violence. Speaking to Abzas Media, Ibadoglu’s wife Irada Bayramova showed bruises covering her body. She explained she was placed into the police van by eight men by force and kept in a locked car. Ibadoglu’s wife was arrested together with her husband on the night of July 23. After being kept for several hours she was released.

Since Ibadoglu’s arrest, his family has been prevented from visiting him or from delivering necessary items, including his medication. In addition, on July 25, the family was informed that the police was unaware of Ibadoglu’s location. According to the information provided by the family, lawyer Sadighova has also been targeted based on an anonymous complaint sent to the Bar Association. Earlier this month, Sadighova’s husband Elchin Sadighov, also a practicing lawyer, had his work suspended by the bar also based on a complaint.

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