Ever since the 8 August meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, in the Whitehouse alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, hardly a week goes by without some development between the two formerly warring neighbours. Though the text of a 17-point agreement to normalise relations after over three decades of conflict was initialled rather than signed, momentum appears to be heading in the right direction.

The one outstanding issue remains Armenia changing its Constitution to remove a controversial preamble that makes claims on territory within Azerbaijan even if the current government denies that it does. Baku, however, is concerned that future governments could theoretically use the preamble, which references the 1990 Declaration of Independence, if they were to come to power. Pashinyan, committed to constitutional reform in general, says that amendments will be put to a referendum following next year’s parliamentary elections.

Though there are other issues of relevance to cementing a lasting peace, they are not part of the document “on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan” finalised in March. According to Pashinyan, there has not been one incident involving cross border gunfire for over 21 months now. In the history of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict this is unprecedented and potentially creates an overall environment conducive to peace. Numerous meetings of Armenians and Azerbaijanis abroad also continue.

But if in the past many meetings were held in foreign capitals and convened by international organisations, they are now more often bilaterally organised and held with almost full transparency the two capitals, Yerevan and Baku. Local and foreign non-governmental organisations that were holding public meetings and conferences in Tbilisi continue to do so, despite claims to the contrary, but a recent bilateral initiative that involved regional analysts and civil society representatives visiting each others capitals is unprecedented.

In September, the co-director of an Azerbaijani think tank attended a NATO Parliamentary Assembly seminar in Yerevan though such examples had occurred prior to the 44-day-war between the sides in 2020. In October, five Azerbaijanis from think tanks and the media flew directly to Yerevan from Baku on an Azerbaijani Airlines plane, the first time in fourteen years, to meet with five Armenian counterparts from civil society. Last month, those same Armenians flew directly to Baku on a Fly One Armenia plane to continue the discussions.

It is believed that this evolved example of Track II diplomacy will feed suggestions and feedback into the official Track I process between the two governments. Both events also included short meetings with senior government figures – Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan in Yerevan and Presidential Advisor Hikmet Hajiyev in Baku. The initiative has now been named “Bridge of Peace” and is said to later include border communities and the media. Both meetings were reportedly held with no incidents.

However, that is not to say that there was not any criticism. Even prior to the departure of the Armenian delegation to Baku, media in Yerevan balked at the cost of the charter flights. Before that trip, Armenian media criticised the presence of two Azerbaijani journalists along with two Baku-based analysts in attendance at another seminar in Yerevan. Just as the Azerbaijani government did with the five Armenian delegates late last month, the Armenian government paid for their hotels. This pales into insignificance compared to the tens of millions of euros paid by the European Union to date.

From 2012 to 2015, the EU’s European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK) received 5.8 million euros for projects that remained unknown to the whole population in both countries and even some western ambassadors. EPNK ran from 2010 to 2019. Today’s process is both visible and arguably yielding results.

In November, delegations from Armenia and Azerbaijan also met bilaterally on the sidelines of an OSCE Parliamentary Assembly event in Istanbul. It is expected there will be more such meetings between the Armenian National Assembly and Azerbaijani Milli Mejlis. Alen Simonyan, speaker of the Armenian parliament also says he wishes to visit Baku. The same month, the Armenian and Azerbaijani commissions charged with the task of border delimitation and demarcation met in Gabala in Azerbaijan. It is expected the next meeting will be in an Armenian city.

By all accounts, personal contact on an unofficial and official level has demonstrated that there is some political will in normalising relations to ready the populations for an eventual peace deal. However, it is not clear how the societies themselves view the process, especially given resistance from the opposition in Armenia and dissident Azerbaijani circles mainly outside the region. Until recently, it was those individuals that received much of EU funding for secret meetings held in foreign capitals.

For many in Armenia, however, there is simply a disbelief that peace is close given a recent history of perpetual misses until now. It is perhaps for this reason that other NGOs continue to engage in their activities. In November, 42 young participants from Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Tbilisi to develop what they term a vision for peace and dialogue between the two countries. It was facilitated by the LINKS Europe NGO based in The Hague and was once part of EPNK. Moreover, it was open and transparent. Several western ambassadors and even the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) attended. However, there is still work to do.

In a public opinion survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in June 2025, 47 percent of respondents in Armenia supported a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan with an additional 10 percent saying it depends on the text of any agreement. Some 40 percent opposed a peace deal though the survey was held before the full text of the agreement was known. It was only initialled and made public only after the 8 August Washington Declaration.

In 2023, a survey in Azerbaijan reported that 78.5 percent of respondents supported a peace deal with Armenia though there have been no updates since.

With six months left until the 7 June parliamentary elections, such surveys matter, not only for Pashinyan’s political future but also for any prospective Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal. It is in this context that the governments and civil society have a main role to play. The details of any peace and associated deals must be explained fully to the populations of both countries.

Moreover, tangible results from the current process of normalisation must be visible and felt by all.

For now, it can be said that this is happening.

Last month, Azerbaijan lifted its embargo on the transit of goods to and from Armenia through its territory. Russian and Kazakh wheat was the first produce to benefit from the decision. It is likely that more such developments will surface in the coming months. It is noteworthy that the next European Political Community (EPC) summit will be held in Yerevan in May just as the official campaign period for the elections in Armenia starts. The normalisation process will likely feature highly.